Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Populasi terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia: Bukti Empiris Peringatan Dini dari Enam Negara Berkembang di Asia
Abstract
This study examines the determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) in six developing countries in Asia during the period 1996–2024 using annual panel data obtained from the UNDP and the World Bank, including GDP per capita, population growth, trade openness, and telecommunications infrastructure. The model used a two-way fixed-effects approach, with tests for heteroscedasticity, robustness, and autocorrelation. The results indicate that GDP per capita, trade openness, and telecommunications infrastructure have a significant positive effect on the HDI, while population growth has a non-significant negative effect, suggesting that population growth does not directly and significantly reduce or improve the quality of human development. Economic crises show a non-significant positive effect on the HDI. These findings indicate that economic growth, trade integration, and the strengthening of digital infrastructure are important factors in human development in developing countries.
References
Ahmadi, Z. K., Rabin, Y. A., & Qadamshahi, H. R. (2025). The impact of trade openness on economic growth of South Asian countries. Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2(3), 37–50. https://doi.org/10.62810/jssh.v2i3.129.
Azimi, M., & Rahman, M. (2024). Renewable energy and ecological footprint nexus: Evidence from dynamic panel threshold technique. Heliyon, 10(13), e33442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33442.
Báez, J. C., Déniz, S., Ramos, M. L., Grande, M., Ruiz, J., Murua, H., Santiago, J., Justel-Rubio, A., Herrera, M., Moniz, I., Lopez, J., Pascual-Alayón, P. J., Muniategi, A., Alzorriz, N., González-Carballo, M., Rojo, V., & Abascal, F. (2022). Data provision for science-based FAD fishery management: Spanish FAD management plan as a case study. Sustainability, 14(6), 3278. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063278.
Bandu, Z., Amalia, S., & Suharto, R. B. (2025). The effect of population growth and human development index on economic growth and unemployment in East Kalimantan Province. International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management, 2(4), 102–111. https://doi.org/10.62951/ijecm.v2i4.981.
Brill, R. S., Deshpande, S. K., & Wyner, A. J. (2023). A Bayesian analysis of the time through the order penalty in baseball. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 19(4), 245-262. https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0116.
Crawshaw, P., Gray, J., Haighton, C., & Lloyd, S. (2024). Health inequalities and health-related economic inactivity: Why good work needs good health. Public Health in Practice, 8(December), 100555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhip.2024.100555.
Dávila-Lamas, A. D., Carbajal-Hernández, J. J., Sánchez-Fernández, L. P., Niebla-Zatarain, V. B., & Hoil-Rosas, C. A. (2022). Assessment of coastal locations safety using a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process-based model. Sustainability, 14(10), 5972. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14105972.
Elomari, Y., Norouzi, M., Marín-Genescà, M., Fernández, A., & Boer, D. (2022). Integration of solar photovoltaic systems into power networks: A scientific evolution analysis. Sustainability, 14(15), 9249. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159249.
Ganbayar, G. (2021). An investigation into the sources of depreciations in Mongolian Tugrik exchange rate: A structural VAR spproach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(11), 529. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14110529.
Hassan, A. S. (2022). Does country risk influence foreign direct investment inflows? A case of the Visegrád Four. Economies, 10(9), 221. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10090221.
Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0700700301.
Huang, B., Lee, T-H., & Ullah, A. (2019). A combined random effect and fixed effect forecast for panel data models. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 4(1), 28–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmse.2019.03.004.
Hussain, T., & Wicaksono, T. Y. (2025). Is trade openness a supportive instrument for human development: A new look on newly industrialized economies. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, 17(2), Article 4. https://citeus.um.ac.id/jesp/vol17/iss2/4.
Ismail, H. A., Suhaji, S., & Listyawati, I. (2025). Penerapan model faktor sinergi tiga tahap dalam industri digital untuk mendorong ekspor jasa. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 16(3), 678-691. https://doi.org/10.33059/jseb.v16i3.12937.
Khan, M. T. I., Anwar, S., Sarkodie, S. A., Yaseen, M. R., & Nadeem, A. M. (2023). Do natural disasters affect economic growth? The role of human capital, foreign direct investment, and infrastructure dynamics. Heliyon, 9(1), e12911. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12911.
Li, H., & Li, J. (2021). Risk governance and sustainability: A scientometric analysis and literature review. Sustainability, 13(21), 12015. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132112015.
Li, K., Su, Q., Ma, X., & Zhang, H. (2023). Research on lithium technology safety issues: A bibliometric analysis. Sustainability, 15(5), 4128. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15054128.
MacLean, L., Yu, L., & Zhao, Y. (2022). A generalized entropy approach to portfolio selection under a hidden Markov model. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(8), 337. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15080337.
Martinez-Leon, I. M., Olmedo-Cifuentes, I., Martínez-Victoria, M., & Arcas-Lario, N. (2020). Leadership style and gender: A study of spanish cooperatives. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(12), 5107. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125107.
Naili, M., & Lahrichi, Y. (2022). Banks’ credit risk, systematic determinants and specific factors: Recent evidence from emerging markets. Heliyon, 8(2), e08960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08960.
Nurlina, N., Ridha, A., & Asnidar, A. (2023). Analisis determinan indeks pembangunan manusia di Indonesia tahun 1990-2021. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 14(2), 239–250. https://doi.org/10.33059/jseb.v14i2.7287.
Nyfoudi, M., Kwon, B., & Wilkinson, A. (2024). Employee voice in times of crisis: A conceptual framework exploring the role of human resource practices and human resource system strength. Human Resource Management, 63(4), 537–553. https://doi.org/10.1002/hrm.22214.
Oosthuizen, M., & Magero, J. (2021). Modelling the demographic dividend: A review of methodologies. Research Reports. AFIDEP. https://afidep.org/publication/modelling-the-demographic-dividend-a-review-of-methodologies/.
Petropoulos, F., Apiletti, D., Assimakopoulos, V., Babai, M. Z., Barrow, D. K., Taieb, S. B., Bergmeir, C., Bessa, R. J., Bijak, J., Boylan, J. E., Browell, J., Carnevale, C., Castle, J. L., Cirillo, P., Clements, M. P., Cordeiro, C., Oliveira, F. L. C., Baets, S. D., Dokumentov, A., Ellison, J., Fiszeder, P., Franses, P. H., Frazier, D. T., Gilliland, M., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Grossi, L., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Guidolin, M., Guidolin, M., Gunter, U., Guo, X., Guseo, R., Harvey, N., Hendry, D. F., Hollyman, R., Januschowski, T., Jeon, J., Jose, V. R. R., Kang, Y., Koehler, A. B., Kolassa, A., Kourentzes, N., Leva, S., Li, F., Litsiou, K., Makridakis, S., Martin, G. M., Martinez, A. B., Meeran, S., Modis, T., Nikolopoulos, K., Önkal, D., Paccagnini, A., Panagiotelis, A., Panapakidis, I., Pavia, J. M., Pedio, M., Pedregal, D. J., Pinson, P., Ramos, P., Rapach, D. E., Reade, J. J., Rostami-Tabar, B., Rubaszek, M., Sermpinis, G., Shang, H. L., Spiliotis, E., Syntetos, A. A., Talagala, P. D., Talagala, T. S., Tashman, L., Thomakos, D., Thorarinsdottir, T., Todini, E., Arenas, J. R. T., Wang, X., Winkler, R. L., Yusupova, A., & Ziel, F. (2022). Forecasting: Theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(3), 705-871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001.
Ratnasari, V., Audha, S. H., & Dani, A. T. R. (2023). Statistical modeling to analyze factors affecting the middle-income trap in Indonesia using panel data regression. MethodsX, 11(December), 102379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2023.102379.
Reis, J. G., Prá, I. D., Michelon, W., Viancelli, A., Marquez, D. G. P., Schmitz, C., Maraschin, M., Moura, S., Silva, I. T., Costa, G. d-O, Tizziani, T., Sandjo, L. P., Rodríguez-Lázaro, D., & Fongaro, G. (2022). Characterization of planktochlorella nurekis extracts and virucidal activity against a coronavirus model, the murine coronavirus 3. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(23), 15823. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192315823.
Rifa’i, M. A., & Arifin, N. S. (2025). Pengaruh digital ekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara berkembang. Jurnal Istiqro, 11(2), 151–166. https://doi.org/10.30739/istiqro.v1i2.3701.
Rovetta, A., Piretta, L., & Mansournia, M. A. (2025). p-Values and confidence intervals as compatibility measures: Guidelines for interpreting statistical studies in clinical research. The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia, 33 (February), 100534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lansea.2025.100534.
Sahle, M., & Saito, O. (2021). Assessing nature’s contributions to people by jefoure roads for sustainable management in the gurage socio-ecological production landscape in Ethiopia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(7), 3806. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073806.
Sharma, N., Gupta, S., Mohamed, H. G., Anand, D., Mazón, J. L. V., Gupta, D., & Goyal, N. (2022). Siamese convolutional neural network-based twin structure model for independent offline signature verification. Sustainability, 14(18), 11484. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811484.
Singh, K., Cheemalapati, S., RamiReddy, S. R., Kurian, G., Muzumdar, P., & Muley, A. (2025). Determinants of human development index (HDI): A regression analysis of economic and social indicators. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 25(1), 26–34. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2025/v25i11630.
Soejoto, A., Ghofur, M. A., & Rachmawati, L. (2022). The effect of population density, educational access inequality and health access inequality on economic growth. AL-ISHLAH: Jurnal Pendidikan, 14(3), 4011–4022. https://doi.org/10.35445/alishlah.v14i3.1674.
Sugimoto, K., Kanda, T., Mitsui, I., Miyabe, M., & Maeta, N. (2020). A laryngeal inflammatory polyp in a miniature dachshund. Veterinary Medicine and Science, 6(3), 342–347. https://doi.org/10.1002/vms3.275.
Toharudin, T., Pontoh, R. S., Caraka, R. E., Zahroh, S., Kendogo, P., Sijabat, N., Sari, M. D. P., Gio, P. U., Basyuni, M., & Pardamean, B. (2021). National vaccination and local intervention impacts on COVID-19 cases. Sustainability, 13(15), 8282. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158282.
UNDP. (2024). Breaking the gridlock: Reimagining cooperation in a polarized world. Human Development Report 2023/2024. United Nations Development Programme. https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2023-24reporten.pdf.
Vera-Valdés, J. E. (2021). Nonfractional long-range dependence: Long memory, antipersistence, and aggregation. Econometrics, 9(4), 39. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics9040039.
Viarum, A., & Susilowati, D. (2024). Determinan kemiskinan di wilayah metropolitan “Kedungsepur” Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 15(2), 455–468. https://doi.org/10.33059/jseb.v15i2.9213.
Wardani, P., & Dirgahayu, T. (2026). Kerangka konseptual transformasi digital untuk efisiensi operasional FMCG: studi literatur sistematis. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 17(2), 357–369. https://doi.org/10.33059/jseb.v17i2.13923.
Wen, Y., Song, P., Gao, C., & Yang, D. (2023). Economic openness, innovation and economic growth: Nonlinear relationships based on policy support. Heliyon, 9(1), e12825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12825.
Zhang, L., Mohandes, S. R., Tong, J., Abadi, M., Banihashemi, S., & Deng, B. (2023). Sustainable project governance: Scientometric analysis and emerging trends. Sustainability, 15(3), 2441. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15032441.
Copyright (c) 2026 Septyan Tri Andika, Dini Yuniarti
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
