Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara ASEAN: Model Data Panel
Abstract
The study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, exchange rate, investment, and labor force participation on the economic growth of member countries in the ASEAN region. This study uses secondary panel data, namely economic data from ten ASEAN member countries from 2000-2020. Sources of data obtained from the publications of the World Bank. The analytical method used is the panel data regression method fixed-effects model approach with a SUR cross-section weighted. This study indicates that the increase in inflation, investment, and labor force participation can encourage economic growth in the ASEAN Region. Meanwhile, the weakening of the value of the domestic currency (depreciation) has corrected the economic growth of ASEAN member countries.
References
Alvitiani, S., Yasin, H., & Mukid, M. A. (2019). Pemodelan data kemiskinan Provinsi Jawa Tengah menggunakan Fixed Effect Spatial Durbin Model. Jurnal Gaussian, 8(2), 220–232. doi: 10.14710/j.gauss.v8i2.26667.
Amalia, K., Kiftiah, M., & Sulistianingsih, E. (2016). Penerapan teori Solow Swan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika Dan Terapannya (Bimaster), 05(1), 39–44. doi: 10.26418/bbimst.v5i01.14750.
Azam, M., Khan, A. Q., Bakhtyar, B., & Emirullah, C. (2015). The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 732–745. doi: 10.1016/J.RSER.2015.03.023.
Baerlocher, D., Parente, S. L., & Rios-Neto, E. (2021). Female labor force participation and economic growth: Accounting for the gender bonus. Economics Letters, 200. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109740.
Bleaney, M., Saxena, S., & Yin, L. (2018). Exchange rate regimes, devaluations and growth collapses. Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 15–25. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.05.002.
Cao, J., Ho, M. S., Hu, W., & Jorgenson, D. (2020). Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China. China Economic Review, 61. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101398.
Ezcurra, R., & Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2014). Trade openness and spatial inequality in emerging countries. Spatial Economic Analysis, 9(2), 162–182. doi: 10.1080/17421772.2014.891155.
Habib, M. M., Mileva, E., & Stracca, L. (2017). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 386–398. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.014.
Haidar, M. I., & Firmansyah. (2021). Analisis pertumbuhan ekonomi negara-negara ASEAN. Forum Ekonomi, 23(3), 593–605. doi: 10.29264/jfor.v23i3.10023.
Ho, S. H., & Saadaoui, J. (2022). Bank credit and economic growth: A dynamic threshold panel model for ASEAN countries. International Economics, 170, 115–128. doi: 10.1016/J.INTECO.2022.03.001.
Iwaisako, T., & Nakata, H. (2017). Impact of exchange rate shocks on Japanese exports: Quantitative assessment using a structural VAR model. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 46, 1–16. doi: 10.1016/J.JJIE.2017.07.001.
Maulida, A. K., Indrawati, L. R., & Prasetyanto, P. K. (2020). Analisis determinan pertumbuhan ekonomi kawasan ASEAN periode tahun 2007-2018. DINAMIC: Directory Journal of Economic, 2(1), 15–32. doi: 10.31002/dinamic.v2i1.1430.
Nasir, M. A., Duc Huynh, T. L., & Xuan Tram, H. T. (2019). Role of financial development, economic growth & foreign direct investment in driving climate change: A case of emerging ASEAN. Journal of Environmental Management, 242, 131–141. doi: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2019.03.112.
Platoni, S., Barbieri, L., Moro, D., & Sckokai, P. (2020). Heteroscedastic stratified two-way EC models of single equations and SUR systems. Econometrics and Statistics, 15, 46–66. doi: 10.1016/ j.ecosta.2019.03.004.
Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., Hall, J. H., & Norman, N. R. (2017). ASEAN economic growth, trade openness and banking-sector depth: The nexus. EconomiA, 18(3), 359–379. doi: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.002.
Rahmadeni, & Wulandari, N. (2017). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi pada kota metropolitan di Indonesia dengan menggunakan analisis data panel. Jurnal Sains Matematika Dan Statistika, 3(2), 34–42. doi: 10.24014/jsms.v3i2.4475.
Rahman, M. M. (2021). The dynamic nexus of energy consumption, international trade and economic growth in BRICS and ASEAN countries: A panel causality test. Energy, 229, 120679. doi: 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2021.120679.
Ribeiro, R. S. M., McCombie, J. S. L., & Lima, G. T. (2020). Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 408–417. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.02.005.
Rosnawintang, Tajuddin, Adam, P., Pasrun, Y. P., & Saidi, L. O. (2021). Effects of crude oil prices volatility, the internet and inflation on economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries: A panel autoregressive distributed lag approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1), 15–21. doi: 10.32479/ijeep.10395.
Sartika, U. (2017). Pengaruh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, kurs, harga minyak dunia dan harga emas dunia terhadap IHSG dan JII di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Balance: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 2(2), 285–294.doi: 10.32502/jab.v2i2.1180.
Silalahi, D., Sitepu, R., & Tarigan, G. (2014). Analisis ketahanan pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara dengan metode regresi data panel. Saintia Matematika, 02(03), 237–251. Retrieved from https://jurnal.usu.ac.id/index.php/smatematika/article/view/5154/pdf.
Solarin, S. A. (2020). The effects of shale oil production, capital and labour on economic growth in the United States: A maximum likelihood analysis of the resource curse hypothesis. Resources Policy, 68. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101799.
Syarun, M. M. (2016). Inflasi, pengangguran dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara Islam. Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 7(2), 27–44. Retrived from https://journal.uhamka.ac.id/index.php/jei/article/view/182.
Szkorupová, Z. (2014). A causal relationship between foreign direct investment, economic growth and export for Slovakia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15(14), 123–128. doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00458-4.
Teimouri, S., & Zietz, J. (2018). The impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing, investment, and unemployment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 158–170. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.07.007.
Thanh, S. D. (2015). Threshold effects of inflation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A panel smooth transition regression approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(38), 41–48. doi: 10.1016/J.JEFAS.2015.01.003.
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2012). Economic Development (11th ed.). Pearson.
Vehapi, M. F., Sadiku, L., & Petkovski, M. (2015). Empirical analysis of the effects of trade openness on economic growth: An evidence for South East European Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19(15), 17–26. doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00004-0.
Wau, T. (2021). Determinan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah Kepulauan Nias. Jurnal Progres Ekonomi Pembangunan (JPEP), 6(1), 39–48. doi: 10.33772/jpep.v6i1.18148.
Wesseh, P. K., & Lin, B. (2018). Exchange rate fluctuations, oil price shocks and economic growth in a small net-importing economy. Energy, 151, 402–407. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.054.
Widarjono, A. (2018). Ekonometrika: Pengantar dan Aplikasinya disertai Panduan Eviews (Edisi Kelima). UPP STIM YKPN.
Ysmailov, B. (2021). Interest rates, cash and short-term investments. Journal of Banking and Finance, 132. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106225.
Zhu, H., Duan, L., Guo, Y., & Yu, K. (2016). The effects of FDI, economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions in ASEAN-5: Evidence from panel quantile regression. Economic Modelling, 58, 237–248. doi: 10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2016.05.003.
Copyright (c) 2022 Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.