Criminality, Poverty, and Unemployment in Aceh Province: Evidence from Granger Causality
Abstrak
Kriminalitas merupakan salah satu kegiatan negatif yang muncul dalam lingkungan sosial. Kehadiran kriminalitas menjadi tantangan bagi para pengambil kebijakan karena mengganggu keamanan publik dan berdampak pada stabilitas ekonomi. Bentuk kegiatan kriminal tersebut antara lain perampokan, pencurian, perjudian, pembunuhan, dan korupsi. Kasus kriminal di Provinsi Aceh tergolong cukup serius. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara kriminalitas, kemiskinan, dan pengangguran di Provinsi Aceh. Data penelitian dikumpulkan sejak tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2023. Metode analisis penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kausalitas Granger. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa kemiskinan memiliki pengaruh satu arah terhadap kriminalitas, kriminalitas memiliki pengaruh satu arah terhadap pengangguran, dan terdapat hubungan dua arah antara kemiskinan dan pengangguran. Berdasarkan temuan tersebut, maka kriminalitas, kemiskinan, dan pengangguran perlu mendapat perhatian khusus. Para pengambil kebijakan perlu memberikan dukungan seperti pendidikan, kesehatan, dan kesejahteraan bagi masyarakat miskin. Selain itu, perlu juga tersedianya lapangan pekerjaan di sektor informal untuk menekan angka pengangguran.
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