Analysis of Migration Trends, Marriage, and Fertility in Indonesia 2010-2025
Keywords:
Demographic, Recent Migration, Marriage, Fertility, Indonesia
Abstract
This study aims to analyze trends in recent migration, marriage, and fertility in Indonesia during the 2010-2025 period as part of the ongoing demographic transition. This study employs a quantitative descriptive approach using the Miles and Huberman interactive analysis model. Data were collected through literature studies using secondary data obtained from publications of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the World Bank. The results show that recent migration in Indonesia tends to decline, indicating changes in population mobility patterns. Marriage indicators also exhibit different trends, where the Crude Marriage Rate (CMR) and General Marriage Rate (GMR) tend to decrease, while the proportion of ever married women aged 10 years and above shows an increasing trend. Meanwhile, fertility tends to decline, reflecting changes in reproductive behavior and family formation patterns. These findings indicate that Indonesia is experiencing a demographic transition characterized by changes in mobility, marriage behavior, and fertility patterns. The implications of this study highlight the need for adaptive population policies that support balanced regional development, strengthen family resilience, and anticipate future demographic challenges, including population ageing and changes in labor force composition.
References
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Bongaarts, J. (1978). A Framework for Analyzing the Proximate Determinants of Fertility. Population and Development Review, 4(1), 105–132. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972149
Bryan, G., & Morten, M. (2019). The aggregate productivity effects of internal migration: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Political Economy, 127(5), 2229–2268.
Diaz, C., & Lee, J. H. (2023). Segmented assimilation and mobility among men in the early 20th century. Demographic Research, 48(February), 107–152. https://doi.org/10.4054/DEMRES.2023.48.5
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Ekoriano, M., Pitoyo, A. J., . N., & Prasetyo, Y. E. (2025). Distribution and Contribution of Ethnic Groups on Fertility in Indonesia: Population Census Long Form and National Socio-economy Survey. Journal of Ecohumanism, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.62754/joe.v4i1.6001
Fitria, M., Laksono, A. D., Syahri, I. M., Wulandari, R. D., Matahari, R., & Astuti, Y. (2024). Education role in early marriage prevention: evidence from Indonesia’s rural areas. BMC Public Health, 24(1), 3323. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20775-4
Gani, A. F. (2025). Literature Review : Indonesia ’ s Declining Birth Rate and Its Implications for Marriage Decisions. Cendekiawan: Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Studi Keislaman, 4(1), 575–584. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61253/cendekiawan.v4i1.269
Gusli, T. (2024). Pelestarian Lembaga Perkawinan: Upaya Mencegah Dampak Ekonomi Krisis Seks Dan Depopulasi Akibat Praktik Childfree, Waithood, Dan Freesex Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Gema Perencana, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.61860/jigp.v3i1.60
Hajri, P., Porta, T., Atmaja, T. S., & Landrawan, I. W. (2023). The Role of the Family in Educating a Democratic and Civilized Generation. Semayo: Jurnal Penelitian Dan Pengabdian, 1.
Harding, M., Azeredo, C., Alvarez, S. E., & Mose, J. N. (2018). Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 4.
Hasanah, H. (2025). Dampak Kausal Pendidikan terhadap Pernikahan di Indonesia: Temuan Empiris dari Pendekatan Sharp Regression Discontinuity Design. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 14(1), 22–40. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.14.1.2025.22-40
Hidayat, N. (2020). Fenomena Migrasi Dan Urban Bias di Indonesia. Jurnal Geografi, 12(1), 22–31. https://doi.org/10.24114/jg.v12i01.16236
Jones, G. W., & Gubhaju, B. (2008). Trends in Age at Marriage in the Provinces of Indonesia (105; ARI Working Paper). http://ssrn.com/abstract=1317127https://ssrn.com/abstract=1317127
Khairunnisa, S., & Nurwati, N. (2021). Pengaruh Pernikahan pada Usia Dini terhadap Peluang Bonus Demografi Tahun 2030. Jurnal Ilmu Kesejahteraan Sosial HUMANITAS, 3(I), 45–69. https://doi.org/10.23969/humanitas.v3iI.2821
Leone, T., Väisänen, H., & Witoelar, F. (2024). Women’s fertility and allostatic load in the post-reproductive years: An analysis of the Indonesian Family Life Survey. Population Studies, 78(1), 127–149. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2160004
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211–251. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
Listyaningsih, U., & Satiti, S. (2022). Dinamika fertilitas dan prevalensi kontrasepsi di Indonesia. Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia, 16(2), 153. https://doi.org/10.14203/jki.v16i2.595
Marta, J., Fauzi, A., Juanda, B., & Rustiadi, E. (2020). Understanding migration motives and its impact on household welfare: evidence from rural–urban migration in Indonesia. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 7(1), 118–132. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2020.1746194
Maulida, Y., Sari, D. R., & Zacharias, T. (2023). Factors Predicting Fertility Rate in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 24(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v24i1.20076
Munoz-Dardé, V., & Martin, M. G. F. (2023). Family and Marriage: Institutions and the Need for Social Goods. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume, 97(1), 221–247. https://doi.org/10.1093/arisup/akad010
Nadeak, F., Rahmawati, M., Prabawati, I., & Suprapto, A. F. (2026). Analisis Implementasi Program Indonesia Pintar dalam Mendukung Kesetaraan Akses Pendidikan Dasar Menuju SDGs 4. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Administrasi Publik, 2(1), 2026. https://doi.org/10.30872/jkin.v18i4.10097
Ningtias, I. S. (2022). Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Penurunan Angka Pernikahan di Indonesia. Jurnal Registratie, 4(2), 87–98. https://doi.org/10.33701/jurnalregistratie.v4i2.2819
Pardede, E. L., McCann, P., & Venhorst, V. A. (2020). Internal migration in Indonesia: new insights from longitudinal data. Asian Population Studies, 16(3), 287–309. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2020.1774139
Prima, I. T., & Khoirunurrofik, K. (2019). Economic Inequality, Regional Development, and Internal Migration in Indonesia. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 65(1), 53. https://doi.org/10.47291/efi.v65i1.606
Ridho, S. L. Z., & Yusuf, S. A. (2021). Dinamika Komposisi Penduduk: Dampak Potensial Pandemi Covid-19 terhadap Demografi di Indonesia. Populasi, 28(2), 32. https://doi.org/10.22146/jp.63351
Rumble, L., Peterman, A., Irdiana, N., Triyana, M., & Minnick, E. (2018). An empirical exploration of female child marriage determinants in Indonesia. BMC Public Health, 18(1), 407. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-5313-0
Saleh, S. (2017). Analisis Data Kualitatif.
Salsabila, D., & Hendrawan, M. Y. (2021). Analisis Kondisi Pemberdayaan Gender di Indonesia Tahun 2020 dengan Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering dan Biplot. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2021(1), 204–213. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.839
Singh, J., Kumar, N., & Prasad Pandey, A. (2024). Impact of Democratization on Family Values and Structures: A Comparative Study. African Journal of Biological Sciences, 6(14). https://doi.org/10.48047/AFJBS.6.14.2024.1957-1969
Snopkowski, K., & Nelson, J. J. (2021). Fertility intentions and outcomes in Indonesia: Evolutionary perspectives on sexual conflict. Evolutionary Human Sciences, 3, e33. https://doi.org/10.1017/ehs.2021.27
Sulfinadia, H., Jurna Petri Roszi, Mega Puspita, A’zizil Fadli, & A’inil Fadli. (2025). The Phenomenon Marriage is Scary: Causal Factors and Efforts Faced by Muslim Communities in Indonesia. Al-Istinbath: Jurnal Hukum Islam, 10(1), 355–377. https://doi.org/10.29240/jhi.v10i1.12414
Taebenu, M. M. (2021). Stalled fertility decline in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, 2002-2017: Understanding its determinants. Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia, 15(2), 227. https://doi.org/10.14203/jki.v15i2.504
Tambunan, B. A. Y., Darayani, F., & Harahap, I. (2024). Hubungan Antara Fertilitas, Mortalitas dan Migrasi Terhadap Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk di Indonesia. Mantap: Journal of Management Accounting, Tax and Production, 2(2), 432–441. https://doi.org/10.57235/mantap.v2i2.2885
Taqwim, S. F., Vaezghasemi, M., Castel-Feced, S., Dewi, F. S. T., & Schröders, J. (2025). The Role of Women’s Empowerment in Fertility Preferences and Outcomes: Analysis of the 2017 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. BMC Women’s Health, 25(1), 211. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-025-03748-6
Utomo, A., Ananta, A., Setyonaluri, D., & Aryaputra, C. (2022). A second demographic transition in Indonesia? China Population and Development Studies, 6(3), 288–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42379-022-00115-y
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Published
2026-10-13
How to Cite
Latifah, L. L., Auliya Uswatun Nizak, Nada Fitri Alilah, Shabrina Khoirunnisa, Lucia Rita Indrawati, & Rebecca Cindy Sartika. (2026). Analysis of Migration Trends, Marriage, and Fertility in Indonesia 2010-2025. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 10(2), 10-24. https://doi.org/10.33059/jse.v10i2.14848
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Articles
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