FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI FLUKTUASI HARGA KOPI INDONESIA
Abstrak
Penelitian ini mengkaji dan menganalis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi harga biji kopi di pasar domestik pada periode 2008.1-2021.12. Analisis data menggunakan model autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Model ini dapat menguji kointegrasi antar variabel, hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Studi ini menemukan adanya keseimbangan jangka panjang antara harga kopi Indonesia, harga kopi dunia, nilai tukar, dan harga biji kakao dunia. Perubahan harga di pasar kopi dunia ditransmisikan ke pasar produsen kopi domestik secara positif dan signifikan. Namun, transmisi penyesuaian korektif yang tidak efisien dalam harga kopi di tingkat produsen Indonesia didokumentasikan selama periode studi. Selai itu, perubahan harga biji kakao di pasar global juga mempengaruhi fluktuasi harga pasar biji kopi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang. Nilai tukar secara konsisten mempengaruhi harga biji kopi Indonesia, sedangkan fluktuasi volume ekspor kopi Indonesia tidak berpengaruh nyata dalam jangka panjang. Hasil estimasi model penelitian dalam jangka pendel semua variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap fluktuasi harga kopi produsen Indonesia pada tingkat lag yang berbeda-beda.
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